Phillips Equation:
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The Phillips curve represents an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. The equation π = πe - α(U - Un) shows how actual inflation depends on expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate.
The calculator uses the Phillips equation:
Where:
Explanation: The equation shows that when unemployment is above its natural rate, inflation tends to be below expectations, and vice versa.
Details: The Phillips curve is fundamental to macroeconomic policy, helping central banks understand the inflation-unemployment trade-off when setting monetary policy.
Tips: Enter expected inflation (%), the alpha coefficient, actual unemployment rate (%), and natural unemployment rate (%). All values must be positive numbers.
Q1: What is a typical value for α?
A: The value varies by economy and time period, but is typically between 0.2 and 0.5 in modern economies.
Q2: How is expected inflation (πe) determined?
A: It can be based on surveys, past inflation rates, or central bank inflation targets.
Q3: What affects the natural rate of unemployment?
A: Factors like labor market institutions, demographics, technology, and education levels influence Un.
Q4: Does the Phillips curve always hold?
A: The relationship can weaken or change over time, especially during periods of stagflation or very low inflation.
Q5: How do policymakers use this equation?
A: It helps assess the inflationary impact of reducing unemployment or the unemployment cost of reducing inflation.